A classification system for active pipeline that groups deals by assessed probability of closing within the forecast period — typically Commit (high confidence), Best Case (possible with favourable conditions), and Pipeline (early stage, directional).
Also known as:
Forecast buckets, commit/best case/pipeline
Most B2B sales organisations use three or four forecast categories. Commit (sometimes called Closed Forecast or Must Close) contains deals the seller and manager both believe will close within the period, barring unforeseen events — these deals are held accountable. Best Case contains deals that could close if conditions are favourable: the buying process is on track, the champion is engaged, but there is meaningful uncertainty. Pipeline (or Upside) contains early-stage opportunities that are directionally positive but not forecastable with confidence. Some organisations add a fourth category — Closed — for deals already signed.
Forecast categories are not probability scores. A deal in Commit is not necessarily 90% likely to close — it is a commitment from the seller and manager that the deal will close this period. A deal moved from Best Case to Commit is a qualitative commitment, not a statistical calculation. The discipline of the category system comes from this accountability: moving a deal to Commit should feel meaningful, because calling a deal and missing it has consequences. Teams that move everything to Commit every quarter and miss forecasts consistently have a category discipline problem, not a luck problem.
A reliable forecast is not the sum of every deal in every category — it is a view built from the Commit column as the floor, plus a discounted view of Best Case, plus a further-discounted view of Pipeline for deals that could slip in from later stages. The discount applied to each category should reflect historical conversion rates from that category, not optimistic assumptions. A team with a historical Best Case conversion rate of 40% should apply a 40% factor, not 60%.
Forecast category discipline is one of the most important outputs of the Run phase of the Closing OS. In the weekly operating cadence, the forecast call is anchored in the Commit column — deals the manager is personally accountable for. Best Case is reviewed for risk signals, not accepted as certain. Pipeline is used to assess coverage for future periods. The most common failure we address is forecast inflation: managers who allow Best Case to include deals that have not met stage exit criteria, producing a forecast number that exceeds what the pipeline actually supports. Stage discipline and forecast category discipline are the same problem viewed from different angles.
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